As
part of a last-minute agreement ending August's debt ceiling standoff,
legislation was signed into law calling for the creation of a deficit reduction
"supercommittee." The Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, comprised of
12 members (6 Democrats and 6 Republicans) from both the House and Senate, was
charged with finding ways to reduce the federal deficit by at least $1.2
trillion, and directed to report its findings by November 23, 2011. Of course,
the outcome was well publicized--the committee announced that it was unable to
reach a deal, and subsequently disbanded. Seen by many as the last best hope to
reach a compromise, the committee's failure casts the debt ceiling as one of
several major issues that will ultimately be addressed by the coming
election.
Automatic cuts
Built
into the legislation that gave birth to the supercommittee was a default
provision--with the committee's failure to reach agreement, $1.2 trillion in
broad-based spending cuts are automatically triggered over a nine-year period
beginning in January 2013 (the term for this is "automatic sequestration"). The
automatic cuts are split evenly between defense spending and non-defense
spending. Although Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare benefits are exempt,
and cuts to Medicare provider payments cannot be more than 2%, most
discretionary programs including education, transportation, and energy programs
would be subject to the automatic cuts.
The
threat of the automatic cuts was conceived as a way to encourage the
supercommittee to reach a compromise. With the failure of the supercommittee to
reach agreement, however, these imminent cuts are now the source of concern.
Parties on both sides find the cuts too broad, and efforts to short-circuit the
automatic cuts, at least those affecting defense spending, have already
begun--though the President has suggested that he would veto any such
legislation.
New debt ceiling crisis possible in 2013
The
legislation that established the supercommittee also put in place what amounted
to a piece of political theater that allowed for temporary, short-term
incremental increases to the debt ceiling limit. Effectively, the President was
able to get additional borrowing authority, while allowing Congress to go on
record opposing it by voting for disapproval--but without really being able to
prevent the debt ceiling increase from taking effect. The last debt-ceiling
increase made under this legislation was calculated to carry us through the
current election cycle. It might not be long after the election is decided,
however, that the debt ceiling limit will again need to be addressed.
Same basic divide remains
The
supercommittee failed in its mission because the parties involved have
fundamentally different visions of how to address our country's debt problem.
It's a gross oversimplification, but the debate largely boils down to what
degree deficit reduction efforts should focus on increasing revenue (and how to
accomplish that), or on reducing government spending, including addressing the
long-term costs associated with entitlement programs such as Social Security,
Medicare, and Medicaid.
Of
course, these approaches aren't mutually exclusive; for example, the bipartisan
Bowles-Simpson commission (the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and
Reform) issued a December 2010 report that recommended a combination of both
approaches. The fact that we're in an election year complicates matters,
however, and may make compromise less likely, if not impossible. That's because
each element of a potential compromise will have significant political
ramifications. In the end, the course taken may depend entirely on the
post-election political landscape.